other countries

current epidemiological analysis as of 05.10.2022- nowcasting

Infection numbers, susceptible individuals, exogenous driver

The following figure shows the course of the active case numbers in the upper left-hand corner (random fluctuations, such as those caused by late reports, are reduced by suitable smoothing). Based on this, estimates of the susceptible proportion of the population (middle left) and the aggregated exogenous drivers, which significantly determine the epidemic events (bottom left), are produced using the differential flatness methodology. In addition, the diagram on the bottom left also shows the course of vaccination rates.

The diagram on the right shows the state progression in a phase diagram. Periods during which a hard lockdown was imposed are marked in purple, details of which can be found in our publication in Nonlinear Dynamics.

Data preparation

The data sets used (raw data) are based on the data provided by the Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety. They show certain country-specific anomalies, mainly due to inconsistencies in the reporting of positively tested and recovered persons. In some cases, inconsistencies were also found in the reported data from the electronic reporting system. In addition, there is a weekly pattern of under-reporting and over-reporting (as fewer tests are usually performed/entered on weekends). It should be noted that the infected persons are determined by cumulating the daily cases of the last fortnight. To reduce the impact of such anomalies, the data were first smoothed in an appropriate way. A window length corresponding to a seven-day multiplier was chosen. The smoothing is based on local regression using weighted linear least squares and a second order polynomial model.